Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Five big NLCS questions four days out

Back again in the NLCS for the first time since 2002.

The Giants opened up in St. Louis, won the first two, lost game 3 at home then won a pair of one-run games to send them to the World Series.

Could a similar pattern hold?

Once again it's a 2-3-2 format. If you are the road team that three-game set at home can be a huge opportunity sandwiched by the two pairs of contests in the opposing team's park.

If the Giants steal one (or both) in Philly then they could come home and finish off the series. But that leads us to this:

Does home field matter?


The Braves were MLB's best regular season team. Coming off a huge comeback win in game two in San Francisco they lost both games at Turner Field in Atlanta including leads in the late innings in both to be kicked out of the playoffs.

Heading into tonight's deciding game 5 in the ALDS series featuring the Rangers and Rays home teams are a putrid 4-10 in the 2010 Postseason. They are 0-4 in that series and 1-6 in the American League overall.

Not including the Texas/Tampa Bay series that the Rays didn't want to win and now the Rangers are playing that way, the simple explanation is that the better team is winning despite the venue.

The Yankees and Phillies simply swept through inferior competition and the Giants would have done the same if it weren't for a rare meltdown by the bullpen.

The Phillies are the better team in this series and certainly have an advantage at home, but the Giants can mash - as proven in September - and will be swinging for those same short fences at the Bank.

If Philly gets the series back home for game six with those white hankies waiving it would be hard to see them not hosting the World Series the following week but good pitching will be the great neutralizer no matter where the games are being played.

Whose Cy Young will be better?


Think these teams can pitch? Game 1 alone features the last three NL Cy Young award winners. Timmy (2008 and 2009) the yet-to-be-crowned 2010 winner Roy Halladay. Even if hell freezes over and Halladay doesn't win the honor he already has one on the mantle from his days in Toronto. Four Cy's between the two starters, I'm not sure I need to elaborate on that. But how's this?

Both made their first playoff trips to the bump in the first game of their opening series and here's what transpired: "Doc" Halladay threw the second no-hitter ever in the postseason and Lincecum threw a complete-game shutout that included two hits and 14 strikeouts.

Who needs Lew Burdette, both these guys might pull a Harvey Haddix.

Who starts game four?


The big advantage the Gigantes have is that their rotation extends one rung further. 21-year old Madison Bumgarner became the second youngest pitcher to win a postseason clincher last night (Valenzuela in 1981 was the youngest) but only earned his first home win of the season two weeks ago.

On the flip side he had the best ERA on the road of any starter making at least 10 starts in the whole league this year. That's hard to figure considering the spacious confines of AT&T compared to most other parks but barring a big hole he would be the logical choice to pitch game four in San Francisco.

The Fanatics? Well, that's where it gets interesting. As good as Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels were in round one so were Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez and would Philly really pitch Roy three times if necessary or risk having to throw somebody else in game 7 if it gets that far?

How much will the bullpens matter?


Tim Kawakami points out on his twitter this morning that the Giants 'pen was second in the majors this season with a 2.99 ERA. The Phillies were 18th (4.02). But the G-Men's beards were certainly hittable in the LDS as Romo couldn't get an out in game two before Wilson blew the lead. The Giants lost that game on a homer in the 11th.

Then Romo blew a hold and Sanchez's gem in game three when he gave up a gopher ball on one of his patented hangers to Eric Hinske. Wilson got big outs in games three and four to nail down victories but always makes it interesting and we have seen the Phillies burn him when he does that already this season.

Ramon Ramirez's pitch that Rick Ankiel deposited in McCovey Cove aside the rest of the 'pen was solid in limited use against Atlanta but the Phillies pack a lot more punch in their line-up so the G-Men will have to shore up the late inning troubles if they want to host the World Series.

On the other side it's pretty simple. Get to Philadelphia's pen. No one down there has the stuff the starters do and much like the Giants scratched and clawed to get Derek Lowe out of last night's eventual win they will have to try and do the same against the terrific trio of Phillies starters to win games they will almost certainly not be holding big leads late in.

Can the Giants muster enough offense to win?


The Giants beat all three of the big Philly horses this year. Sanchez outdueled Halladay and Hamels and Lincecum outdueled Oswalt THREE times while he was with Houston before he got the better of Zito and the Giants in Philadelphia. But the Giants offense has its shortcomings.

Torres and Sanchez need to get aboard and while it's nice to see the Giants try and move runners up, they looked awful running against Atlanta and stealing a few bases instead of just getting thrown out would really help.

Then of course there's that year-long issue with the double plays. Having Sandoval on the bench helps but its not as though anyone else is really immune to the bug. Productive outs are one thing. Rally killers? Not so much.

A few steals, sacrifices and timely hits could go a long way to sending the Giants back to the Fall Classic and four wins away from their first title ever in San Francisco.

Giants baseball, still torture, but at least it's not over yet.

I leave you with this video, I can't stop watching it and neither should you.

No comments:

Post a Comment