Five big NLCS questions four days out

Back again in the NLCS for the first time since 2002.

The Giants opened up in St. Louis, won the first two, lost game 3 at home then won a pair of one-run games to send them to the World Series.

Could a similar pattern hold?

Once again it's a 2-3-2 format. If you are the road team that three-game set at home can be a huge opportunity sandwiched by the two pairs of contests in the opposing team's park.

If the Giants steal one (or both) in Philly then they could come home and finish off the series. But that leads us to this:

Does home field matter?


The Braves were MLB's best regular season team. Coming off a huge comeback win in game two in San Francisco they lost both games at Turner Field in Atlanta including leads in the late innings in both to be kicked out of the playoffs.

Heading into tonight's deciding game 5 in the ALDS series featuring the Rangers and Rays home teams are a putrid 4-10 in the 2010 Postseason. They are 0-4 in that series and 1-6 in the American League overall.

Not including the Texas/Tampa Bay series that the Rays didn't want to win and now the Rangers are playing that way, the simple explanation is that the better team is winning despite the venue.

The Yankees and Phillies simply swept through inferior competition and the Giants would have done the same if it weren't for a rare meltdown by the bullpen.

The Phillies are the better team in this series and certainly have an advantage at home, but the Giants can mash - as proven in September - and will be swinging for those same short fences at the Bank.

If Philly gets the series back home for game six with those white hankies waiving it would be hard to see them not hosting the World Series the following week but good pitching will be the great neutralizer no matter where the games are being played.

Whose Cy Young will be better?


Think these teams can pitch? Game 1 alone features the last three NL Cy Young award winners. Timmy (2008 and 2009) the yet-to-be-crowned 2010 winner Roy Halladay. Even if hell freezes over and Halladay doesn't win the honor he already has one on the mantle from his days in Toronto. Four Cy's between the two starters, I'm not sure I need to elaborate on that. But how's this?

Both made their first playoff trips to the bump in the first game of their opening series and here's what transpired: "Doc" Halladay threw the second no-hitter ever in the postseason and Lincecum threw a complete-game shutout that included two hits and 14 strikeouts.

Who needs Lew Burdette, both these guys might pull a Harvey Haddix.

Who starts game four?


The big advantage the Gigantes have is that their rotation extends one rung further. 21-year old Madison Bumgarner became the second youngest pitcher to win a postseason clincher last night (Valenzuela in 1981 was the youngest) but only earned his first home win of the season two weeks ago.

On the flip side he had the best ERA on the road of any starter making at least 10 starts in the whole league this year. That's hard to figure considering the spacious confines of AT&T compared to most other parks but barring a big hole he would be the logical choice to pitch game four in San Francisco.

The Fanatics? Well, that's where it gets interesting. As good as Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels were in round one so were Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez and would Philly really pitch Roy three times if necessary or risk having to throw somebody else in game 7 if it gets that far?

How much will the bullpens matter?


Tim Kawakami points out on his twitter this morning that the Giants 'pen was second in the majors this season with a 2.99 ERA. The Phillies were 18th (4.02). But the G-Men's beards were certainly hittable in the LDS as Romo couldn't get an out in game two before Wilson blew the lead. The Giants lost that game on a homer in the 11th.

Then Romo blew a hold and Sanchez's gem in game three when he gave up a gopher ball on one of his patented hangers to Eric Hinske. Wilson got big outs in games three and four to nail down victories but always makes it interesting and we have seen the Phillies burn him when he does that already this season.

Ramon Ramirez's pitch that Rick Ankiel deposited in McCovey Cove aside the rest of the 'pen was solid in limited use against Atlanta but the Phillies pack a lot more punch in their line-up so the G-Men will have to shore up the late inning troubles if they want to host the World Series.

On the other side it's pretty simple. Get to Philadelphia's pen. No one down there has the stuff the starters do and much like the Giants scratched and clawed to get Derek Lowe out of last night's eventual win they will have to try and do the same against the terrific trio of Phillies starters to win games they will almost certainly not be holding big leads late in.

Can the Giants muster enough offense to win?


The Giants beat all three of the big Philly horses this year. Sanchez outdueled Halladay and Hamels and Lincecum outdueled Oswalt THREE times while he was with Houston before he got the better of Zito and the Giants in Philadelphia. But the Giants offense has its shortcomings.

Torres and Sanchez need to get aboard and while it's nice to see the Giants try and move runners up, they looked awful running against Atlanta and stealing a few bases instead of just getting thrown out would really help.

Then of course there's that year-long issue with the double plays. Having Sandoval on the bench helps but its not as though anyone else is really immune to the bug. Productive outs are one thing. Rally killers? Not so much.

A few steals, sacrifices and timely hits could go a long way to sending the Giants back to the Fall Classic and four wins away from their first title ever in San Francisco.

Giants baseball, still torture, but at least it's not over yet.

I leave you with this video, I can't stop watching it and neither should you.

Feeling rosy with Posey

Fifteen days ago the Giants were on the precipice of disaster.

They had fallen to just one game over .500 by virtue of dropping seven straight and were straddled with the task of beating the hottest pitcher in decades to stop the slide.

But in a "this is why they play the games" moment the G-Men did just that. They torched Ubaldo Jimenez for seven runs, melted in the middle innings allowing the Rockies to take an 8-7 lead before a season-saving comeback gave them an 11-8 win.

They lost a torturous 15-inning affair the next day, losing three of four to a divisional foe in the process, but getting to Jimenez set the tone for a complete 180 that began two days later in Milwaukee.

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The Giants were flying high in mid-June, topping out at 37-28 but a 2-4 road trip to Toronto and Houston and a win in the opener against the Red Sox led into that seven game swoon. After splitting those final two games in Denver the G-Men were at the midpoint of their season and sat at just 41-40.

For a team loaded with starting pitching, expecting its bullpen to be strong, confident that some timely hits could produce runs and eager to improve on a surprising 88-win season the year before it was a troubling predicament.

So what happened?

In two words: Buster Posey.

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Aubrey Huff, Andres Torres and Travis Ishikawa have been fabulous.

But the whiz kid simply put the team on his back and took over.

Bengie Molina was shipped off to Texas and in July Mr. Posey is hitting .500 (26-for-52).

He has an 11-game hitting streak, eight multi-hit games and in a 10-game span did something no rookie in the history of the National League has done when he banged out 19 hits, clubbed six homers and plated 13.

Since dropping the finale to Colorado the Giants have won nine of 10, losing only to Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals, and have leap frogged the Dodgers and Rockies in the NL West standings are are currently tied for the wild card lead.

They clobbered Milwaukee, sweeping the Brew Crew in four straight by a 36-7 margin, took two of three in the nation's capital and absolutely stifled the Mets for the first three games after the Midsummer Classic behind two complete game shutouts and another dominating performance last night to guarantee at least another series win.

It's a very long season and teams certainly go hot and cold more than once but the emergence of Posey, at the plate and behind it - Giants pitchers went 24 innings before yielding a run after the All Star break - has been exactly the kind of spark necessary for them to reestablish themselves as contenders.

May Recap: Timmy struggles, Rowand slumps and Buster Posey mashes

After a stellar start to the season the G-Men went a paltry 14-14 in May and finished the month 27-23 overall.

Highlights include sweeps at Florida, home against Houston and last weekend at AT&T against the Diamondbacks.

Lowlights were being swept at home by San Diego, dropping both games in the Arizona desert and a one-run performance across the Bay in Oakland. Scoring one run in a three-game series? Yep, it was the first time it has happened to the franchise since 1948 when they were held to a lone tally in a home series at The Polo Grounds.

Starting Pitching

The mediocrity certainly starts on the mound where despite solid performances Tim Lincecum kept getting no-decisions thanks to his bullpen then followed up his fifth win with three straight implosions of his own.

The Freak has walked five batters in each of his last five starts. He hasn't made it out of the sixth in any of his last three starts and has yielded 14 earned runs while seeing a concerning drop in his velocity.

The two-time defending Cy Young winner certainly sets the tone for the Giants and his recent struggles are definitely disconcerting for the San Francisco faithful.

Barry Zito has come back to the pack as well. He was roughed up in his former home against Oakland but still managed quality starts in his other four appearances and continues to boast an ERA under-3.00.

Matt Cain continues to be a victim of circumstance but has pitched very well the last month outside of one tough start against the Padres. Friday night's complete game, one-hit shutout was a thing of beauty and he may just be the Giants most consistent starter despite his usual lack of run support.

Another tough-luck starter for the Boys by the Bay is lefty, Jonathan Sanchez. The Giants erupted for 12 runs for the Sanchize Saturday night allowing him to pick up his third win. His strikeout numbers have been down a little bit of late but he's the only starter in black and orange to not give up more than four runs in a start this season and keeping your team in the game is the pitcher's number one priority.

Todd Wellemeyer continues to be a wild-card and has done little to quiet the calls for Madison Bumgarner from Triple-A Fresno but did manage to toss three quality starts in May and going 2-1 during the month.

The Lineup


The Giants went through some awful stretches (like the one in Oakland) with the sticks but the insertion of Andres Torres into the leadoff spot, the return of Freddy Sanchez and the call-up of Buster Posey has ignited the offense of late.

Buster Posey, the Giants uber-prospect made his highly anticipated debut Saturday at first base and promptly went 3-for-4 with three run scoring singles. Another three-hit performance Sunday from the whiz kid equaled another win for the G-Men and resulted in a barrage of standing ovations.

The Giants need some excitement at the plate and Posey certainly provides it.

Andres Torres has been fabulous at the top of the chart, getting on base, stealing bases and basically doing what any true leadoff man does.

Freddy Sanchez has played quality defense at second since returning from his injury and is a great fit in the two-hole.

The Panda struggled in May but has shown flashes lately of re-emerging as the hitter the Giants need him to be including three hits yesterday against Colorado flamethrower Ubaldo Jimenez.

Aubrey Huff continues to hit well and has been fine on defense both at first base and in left field after moving there to accomodate Posey. He has been a very good signing for the Giants to this point.

Juan Uribe continues to mash despite being banged up and bringing the versatile utility man back for another year was also a good move.

On the other side Edgar Renteria and Mark DeRosa can simply not stay healthy and the Giants highest-paid player Aaron Rowand is really scuffling.

The Giants offense is too much of a patchwork group not to have all hands on board and it definitely rears its ugly head more often than not.

The Nitty-Gritty


27-23 (Third place NL West)

Pitching Leaders:
Wins - Zito (6)
ERA - Cain (2.50)
K's - Lincecum (83)
Saves - Wilson (12)

Hitting Leaders:
Average - Sandoval (.293)
HR's - Uribe (7)
RBI's - Uribe (29)
SB's - Torres (8)

Up Next: June


Home series continues with division-rival Colorado, followed by three games in Pittsburgh and four in NL-Central leading Cincinnati. Interleague home tilts with Oakland and Baltimore follow before three game trips to explosive Toronto and hapless Houston. The month concludes with a juicy six-game homestand that sees Boston and the Dodgers come to AT&T Park.

April recap: Great pitching, more spotty offense

The Giants finished the first month of the season 13-9 and quickly made it 14-9 with a win on May 1st.

Matt Cain worked eight masterful innings for his first win of the season, yielding just one hit and no runs as the G-Men cruised to a 6-1 victory.

It's been quite a homestand as the Giants took two of three from division-leading St. Louis, two more from two-time defending NL champion Philadelphia and go for the sweep today against last year's NL wild card.

As far as an early season measuring stick the Giants got a good one and they have fared really well.

The starting pitching - a strength everyone knew about - as been even better than expected.

Tim Lincecum: 4-0, 1.27 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 7 BB, 42 K's
Barry Zito: 4-0, 1.53 ERA, 0.88 WHIP
Matt Cain: 1-1, 2.84 ERA, 1.01 WHIP
Jonathan Sanchez: 2-1, 1.85 ERA, 1.11 WHIP

The Giants have three starters in the top-8 in the NL in ERA (four in the top-17) and last year's late-season number five starter, Brad Penny is seventh at 1.56. Oh, what could have been.

Disregarding the current fifth starter, Todd Wellemeyer, who did pitch very well in a win against the Phillies on Tuesday, the Giants top-four starters are 11-2 with a 1.83 ERA.

The Giants would be very, very dangerous in a seven-game series with that group going out there.

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The offense went threw a horrible stretch - seven runs in 11 games - but has righted itself of late.

The Giants are leading the major leagues in hitting, yes you read that right, with a .282 batting average but the problem is still two-fold: a) Getting big-hits with runners in scoring position and b) Scoring runs away from AT&T Park.

Despite that leading clip they are just 19th in runs scored, meaning they are getting on base more frequently but still struggling to plate the guys once they are there.

The G-Men go back on the road tomorrow for three in Florida starting Tuesday and then three with the Mets. It would be a great time for those bats to wake up on the road and continue the recent success they have had at home.

SF is 10-4 at home and just 4-5 on the road, which includes that sweep of the Astros to start the season.

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If the Giants continue to pitch the way they have been, and the offense can give the staff some breathing room this club can really make some noise in the fall months.

Matt Cain talked about how much easier it was pitching with the lead yesterday. For a guy who has the lowest run support (3.76) during his time in the big leagues, he really knows what he's talking about.

Barry Zito is 107-6 with four runs of support and Sanchez' only loss was a game in which the Padres managed only one hit.

The foundation is there and the Giants are starting to build on it. Just one question remains: Can Buster Posey play left field?

Giants Sweep the 'Stros

The last time the San Francisco Giants won their first three games was 2003. That year they won 100 games. I said on multiple occasions this offseason that last year's team could have hit that number with some plate discipline and a few clutch hits.

The 2010 version is a whole lot better though. Rowand knows his role and is in better shape. Renteria is healthy. Mark DeRosa adds another element of versatility. Aubrey Huff is a veteran presence in the line-up. Pablo Sandoval will only get better. John Bowker seems to finally get it. Freddy Sanchez is on his way back. Juan Uribe can still hit and fill-in all over the infield. Bengie Molina is a good hitter as long as he's not in the clean-up spot.

Then there's that pitching staff. It's been three games. But how many times did last year's team score 10 runs and mash 19 hits?

Consistency and health play a major role in long-term success but the makings of a great team are there and it's been a long time coming for the Boys by the Bay.

Off day tomorrow then Jonathan Sanchez takes the hill in Friday night's home opener.

Wire-to-wire West leaders? It's possible.

Pitchers and catchers anyone?

"I always wondered why they were called roofies, 'cause your more likely to end up on the floor then the roof."

And thus has been the Giants plight since BLB, Mr. Motorcycle, and young Richie were mashing in the middle of the line-up.

Much more likely to end up in the cellar than at the top of the NL west mountain.

Or, to be "face down in a ditch somewhere..." (you know where that one is going) than finding $80,000 worth of Bellagio chips in a satchel.

But if Rain Man, "a retard" can count cards and nearly take down Vegas than Brian Sabean can draft Tim Lincecum and sign Pablo Sandoval.

Lincecum, the strike-throwing, pot-smoking wiz kid from Washington is the best pitcher, this young, since the Rocket won back-to-back Cy's like Timmy did in the late '80's at the same age.

In Sandoval, the Giants have the best pure hitter this side of Albert Pujols (a side, all but maybe five-10 players in ML history are on) in the National League.

Camp Panda workouts this off-season should mean a trimmer, more effective Pablo. A better line-up should mean more opportunities to drive in runs and even a little more plate discipline could mean scarier numbers.

But where having two of the best players in the game is a "this ain't working for me no more!" moment, the contracts of Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand and Edgar Renteria sure feel a lot like getting tased by some grade schoolers.

But there will be plenty of time to jump back on the bashing bandwagon come April so let's explore some offseason moves, with the million-dollar question in mind: What has been done to improve the offense?

Versatile veteran Mark DeRosa joins the black and orange. The soon-to-be 35-year-old has played all but three positions in his big league career and averaged 22 homers and 83 RBI's the last two seasons on the Northside of Chicago, and with the Indians and Redbirds.

He can provide more pop in the Giants line-up but does not hit for a great average (like every one not named Pablo), has had some injuries recently and may not be very sound defensively despite the myriad of places he can play.

He does however have a .358 career average in the postseason with 53 AB's, and could be a valuable piece should he help carry the team past the first weekend in October.

The other free-agent acquisition is designated hitter, errr first baseman, Aubrey Huff.

Forced to find a position for Huff in the National League he will play at first for the G-Men. The metrics in the field for Aubrey are not very good. He has played third and right field as well but it would stand to reason he would sit on days that Ishikawa gets the starting nod in the infield.

At the plate Huff has mashed more than 200 homers and driven in more than 750 runs in his 10-year big league career. He's had six season with 20+ dingers and five where he has 85+ RBI's.

He hit .304 with 32 HR's and 108 RBI's in 2008 with the Orioles and boasts a .282 lifetime mark.

The Giants are hoping he rebounds from an awful 40-game stint in Detroit where he hit just .189 to finish out the season and the Tigers squandered the AL-Central lead and lost to the Twins in a one-game playoff. Huff has never been in the playoffs.

If the Boys by the Bay can get second baseman Freddy Sanchez healthy, the line-up looks much better. Although that is a big "if" when you consider the point Tim Kawakami made last month. Freddy has as many surgeries as he does extra-base hits with the G-Men (two).

But the defense may also suffer and for a team that has trouble scoring runs and their biggest strength is pitching that sounds like addition and subtraction.

Much more on the rest of the line-up, timely hitting, the defense, the young guys and the pitching staff to come.

After all, its only February. It's a little early to start letting the dogs out.

Off-season Odds & Ends: Bochy, Sabean, Freddy and Buster

Hello again. It's been almost a month since the Giants season ended, although MLB will crown a champion in the next few days if not in a few hours.

San Fran has plenty of work to do to improve on their 2009 campaign and they have made a few steps to try and do so.

-- First, on October 13th manager Bruce Bochy and GM Brian Sabean were given two-year deals to return to the club with options for 2012.

-- Hitting coach Carney Lansford was let go by the team after another dismal offensive season for Giants hitters and just today Hensley Meulens was promoted from the team's Triple-A affiliate in Fresno.

"Bam Bam" as Meulens is called has been lauded for his work with Giants prospects John Bowker and Eugenio Velez and will hopefully spark some new life, discipline and fundamentals into a line-up sorely in need of some direction.

-- Second baseman Freddy Sanchez, limited in his playing time after a mid-season trade brought him to the Bay from Pittsburgh agreed to a two-year deal, worth $12 million.

Sanchez should see plenty of pitches to hit while batting in the #2 hole directly in front of Pablo Sandoval.

-- Oft-injured Giants lefty Noah Lowry will be a free agent after the orange and black declined to exercise his 2010 option worth $6.25 million. The 29-year old Ventura native has missed all of the last two seasons with shoulder and forearm injuries.

The Giants still could bring Lowry back but there is a definite rift between the club and Lowry's agent who claimed the Giants training staff "misdiagnosed" one of Lowry's ailments and in turn made matters worse for his client.

-- Finally, Buster Posey was recognized with the J.G. Taylor Spink award as the 2009 Minor League Player of the Year. The 22-year old Catcher out of Florida State hit .325 at Single-A San Jose and at Fresno before being called up to the big club in early September.

The Giants have a big decision to make in terms of Posey's readiness to inherit the full-time starting catching job in 2010. Free agent incumbent Bengie Molina's status play a big role how that will turn out.

Molina, will want a multiple year deal and a sizable salary but he's 35, is going to catch less games each year from here on out, and should be hitting no higher than sixth in the line-up.

To tie-up money behind the plate when Posey is so close would be a strange move for an organization with so many other needs.

Stay tuned for more updates, especially when free agency and arbitration begin after the end of the World Series.

I have been talking baseball on my other blog "Tucker Talks" all throughout the playoffs. Click the link on the right to read more of that.